Using FM26's new World Cup 2026 quick-start option, we simulated the entire tournament with the confirmed squads to see who lifted the trophy, who flopped, and which players stole the show.
FM26 finally got its crystal ball moment
Football Manager has always been at its funniest when it starts pretending it can predict the future. Sometimes it gives us something that feels weirdly believable. Sometimes it serves up the kind of result that makes you stare at your monitor like your assistant manager has just recommended playing your 5ft 7in winger at centre-back.
So when Football Manager 2026 Update 26.3.2 added the option to start a save with the confirmed World Cup squads, there was only one responsible thing to do. I quick-started the FIFA World Cup 2026 in FM26, stepped away from the controls, and let the game decide the entire tournament.
The official update from Sports Interactive added all 48 qualified teams as playable, licensed tournament kits, and a new option to start with the confirmed World Cup squads. SI also noted that the 26-player squads were correct as of Monday 1 June, so later real-world injuries or squad changes are not reflected. You can read the official update notes on the Sports Interactive Community forum.
And the result? Spain won the World Cup. The USA reached the final on home soil. Ivory Coast turned into prime Brazil for about three weeks. England got absolutely battered. Mbappe scored so many goals it looked like he had found an exploit.
Classic Football Manager, basically.
How I simulated the World Cup 2026 in FM26
For this experiment, I used the new World Cup 2026 quick-start option in FM26 and simulated the entire tournament from start to finish. No tactical rescue jobs. No reloading. No trying to save England from themselves, which, as it turns out, would have been useful.
- Game: Football Manager 2026
- Update: 26.3.2
- Mode: FIFA World Cup 2026 quick start
- Squads: confirmed tournament squads from the FM26 update
- Teams: all 48 qualified nations
- Human involvement: none after the simulation began
So this is not me trying to prove FM26 can genuinely predict the World Cup. It cannot. It is still Football Manager, a game where your 18 finishing striker can miss from three yards and then your centre-back scores a 30-yard screamer on his weaker foot. But that is exactly why this is fun.
Group stage results - the first signs of chaos
The group stage started fairly sensibly in places. Mexico topped Group A with a perfect nine points. Spain looked terrifying in Group H. France did France things in Group I. Portugal were clean and efficient in Group K.
Then FM26 started getting ideas above its station.
Argentina finishing third in Group J behind Algeria and Austria was the first proper eyebrow-raiser. They still squeezed through, but watching the world champions stumble through a group containing Jordan felt very Football Manager.
Group E was even more interesting. Ecuador topped it with nine points, Germany finished second, and Ivory Coast only scraped through in third. At that point, they looked like a fun underdog story. Nobody knew they were about to turn into the villains of the entire knockout stage.
New Zealand also deserve a little nod here. They came second in Group G behind Belgium, finishing ahead of Egypt and Iran. That is exactly the sort of thing you would laugh at before the tournament, then quietly pretend you always saw coming once it happens.
Group stage winners
| Group | Winner | Runner-up | Notable story |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | Mexico | South Korea | Mexico took nine points from nine. |
| B | Switzerland | Canada | Canada looked dangerous early. |
| C | Brazil | Morocco | Scotland also made it through in third. |
| D | Australia | USA | The hosts started quietly, then exploded later. |
| E | Ecuador | Germany | Ivory Coast sneaked through in third. |
| F | Netherlands | Japan | Sweden survived despite finishing third. |
| G | Belgium | New Zealand | New Zealand ahead of Egypt and Iran is spicy. |
| H | Spain | Uruguay | Spain scored 10 goals in three games. |
| I | France | Senegal | France won all three matches. |
| J | Algeria | Austria | Argentina finished third. |
| K | Portugal | Colombia | Portugal were perfect with three clean sheets. |
| L | England | Ghana | Croatia survived in third. |
Second round - England humiliated and Brazil stunned
This is where the simulation stopped being polite and started throwing chairs around the room.
Brazil losing 1-0 to Japan was the first proper headline result. Not a 3-2 thriller. Not a penalty shootout. Just Brazil, out, beaten by Japan, and sent home before the tournament had properly warmed up.
Then came England.
England 2-5 Ivory Coast is one of those FM results where you do not even get angry. You just sit there in silence and wonder whether the match engine has a personal vendetta against your country. England had topped their group. Ivory Coast had only gone through as a third-place side. Naturally, Ivory Coast then scored five and dumped England out like it was nothing.
France, meanwhile, reminded everyone that they were still France by destroying Türkiye 6-0. Spain thumped Austria 6-2. The USA beat New Zealand 3-0. Portugal lost 1-0 to Croatia. Argentina lost 1-0 to Switzerland. Uruguay lost 5-3 to Algeria.
So yes, the second round was a mess. A beautiful mess, but a mess.
Round of 16 - the serious contenders emerge
By the Round of 16, the tournament had settled into a strange rhythm. France were marching on. Spain looked elite. Germany had recovered from their awkward group stage. The USA were starting to look like a genuine story, not just a host nation getting a cute run.
France brushed Ecuador aside 3-0. Germany beat Japan 2-0, getting a bit of revenge for Brazil on behalf of the traditional football powers. Spain handled Colombia 3-1, while Croatia beat Switzerland 2-1.
The USA kept their run going with a 2-1 win over Algeria, which was probably the moment where this simulation stopped being just funny and started becoming properly interesting. Because at this stage, the hosts were not fluking their way through on penalties every round. They were actually winning games.
Ivory Coast also refused to disappear. After humiliating England, they beat Scotland 3-2. At this point, they had scored eight goals in two knockout games. That is not an underdog run anymore. That is a warning sign.
Quarter-finals - Ivory Coast become the story
The quarter-finals gave us the final four, and honestly, this is where FM26 produced one of the strangest semi-final line-ups I have seen in an international tournament simulation.
France beat Canada 2-1, ending what had been a very respectable Canadian run. Spain beat Sweden 2-0, because Spain in this simulation were just cold, efficient and slightly terrifying.
Then Germany lost 2-0 to Ivory Coast.
That is the result that turned Ivory Coast from fun chaos team into full tournament phenomenon. England? Gone. Scotland? Gone. Germany? Gone. At this point, Ivory Coast were basically walking around the tournament with a clipboard full of European nations and a big red marker.
The final quarter-final saw the USA beat Croatia 3-2. For the hosts, that was massive. Croatia had already knocked out Portugal and Switzerland, so this was not an easy path. FM26 had somehow built a USA World Cup run that felt both ridiculous and weirdly cinematic.
Semi-finals - Spain survive, USA reach the final
The semi-finals gave us France vs Spain and Ivory Coast vs USA. One looked like a proper elite World Cup semi-final. The other looked like the sort of fixture you only get when Football Manager has been left unsupervised.
Spain beat France 2-1 in the first semi-final, which immediately made them favourites for the trophy. France had Mbappe in outrageous form, but Spain had the stronger collective tournament. It was the classic FM debate: superstar output versus team balance.
The other semi-final was pure chaos. Ivory Coast and USA drew 3-3, and the hosts went through on penalties. After everything Ivory Coast had done to England, Scotland and Germany, they were finally stopped by the home nation from twelve yards.
Hollywood could not have written it better. Well, Hollywood probably would have made Christian Pulisic score a 94th-minute bicycle kick, because subtlety is illegal over there, but still.
Third place playoff - France take bronze
Ivory Coast still had one more game to play, and they nearly gave France a problem as well. The third place playoff ended Ivory Coast 2-3 France, giving France the bronze medal and leaving Ivory Coast as the mad cult heroes of this simulation.
Fourth place for Ivory Coast is outrageous in the best possible way. This is exactly the kind of result that makes these simulations worth doing. Not because it is likely, but because it makes you start asking, "Hang on, what if?"
The final - Spain 3-2 USA
And then came the final. Spain against the USA at the New York New Jersey Stadium. European champions versus hosts. European control versus American momentum. Pedri, Olmo, Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams against a USA side that had somehow fought its way through Croatia and Ivory Coast to reach the biggest match in world football.
The funniest part? The USA actually went 2-0 up.
Ricardo Pepi scored in the 19th minute, assisted by Haji Wright. Two minutes later, Wright scored himself, assisted by Pepi. At 2-0, FM26 had briefly created the most unhinged World Cup final timeline imaginable. The USA were 69 minutes away from winning the World Cup on home soil.
Then Spain remembered they were Spain.
Dani Olmo pulled one back in the 29th minute after a Lamine Yamal assist. Ferran Torres made it 2-2 before half-time, with Pedri providing the assist. Then, in the 82nd minute, Olmo scored again from another Lamine Yamal assist to complete the comeback.
Spain won 3-2. Dani Olmo was named Player of the Match. Lamine Yamal finished the final with two assists. The USA had more possession, more shots, more expected goals and more clear-cut chances, but Spain had the ruthlessness. Proper tournament football, that.
Final score
| Team | Goals | Scorers |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | 3 | Dani Olmo 29', Ferran Torres 42', Dani Olmo 82' |
| USA | 2 | Ricardo Pepi 19', Haji Wright 21' |
Top scorers - Mbappe broke the tournament
Spain won the trophy, but Kylian Mbappe owned the stats page. He scored 13 goals in eight appearances, finished with the highest average rating, and picked up five Player of the Match awards.
Thirteen goals at a World Cup is absurd. Not "good tournament" absurd. More like "did someone forget to nerf him?" absurd. France only finished third, but Mbappe basically turned the competition into his personal shooting drill.
The other big stories were Ernest Nuamah scoring eight for Ghana, Jonathan David hitting seven for Canada, and Spain spreading the goals around with Mikel Oyarzabal, Dani Olmo and Lamine Yamal all heavily involved.
Top goalscorers in the FM26 simulation
| Player | Nation | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | France | 13 |
| Ernest Nuamah | Ghana | 8 |
| Jonathan David | Canada | 7 |
| Amine Gouiri | Algeria | 6 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | Spain | 6 |
| Viktor Gyokeres | Sweden | 6 |
| Dani Olmo | Spain | 6 |
| Lamine Yamal | Spain | 5 |
Best players of the tournament
FM26's player stats painted a clear picture. Mbappe was the best individual player, Lamine Yamal was the best young superstar, and Spain had the depth of elite performers needed to actually win the thing.
Mbappe finished with an 8.60 average rating, five Player of the Match awards and 13 goals. Lamine Yamal was second for average rating with 8.17, while Ernest Nuamah finished third with 8.07 after a superb tournament for Ghana.
For Spain, the final was really the Olmo and Yamal show. Olmo scored twice in the final and ended the competition with six goals. Yamal recorded two assists in the biggest game of the tournament and still finished with five goals overall. At 19, that is not a breakout tournament. That is a takeover.
Biggest shocks from the FM26 World Cup simulation
1. The USA reached the final
The hosts did not top their group, but once the knockout rounds began, they grew into the tournament. They beat New Zealand, Algeria, Croatia and Ivory Coast before losing 3-2 to Spain in the final. That is a proper run.
2. England lost 5-2 to Ivory Coast
No hiding from this one. England topped their group and then got absolutely shredded by Ivory Coast in the second round. It is the kind of result that would cause three weeks of phone-ins, emergency pundit panels and someone demanding a return to 4-4-2.
3. Brazil lost to Japan
Brazil topped their group, then lost 1-0 to Japan in the second round. It was not the craziest scoreline, but the timing made it brutal. One bad day and Brazil were gone.
4. Argentina finished third in their group
Argentina did get out of the group, but finishing behind Algeria and Austria was not exactly the title defence they would have wanted. Switzerland then knocked them out 1-0 in the second round.
5. Ivory Coast finished fourth
Ivory Coast were the story of the tournament. They came through as a third-place side, then knocked out England, Scotland and Germany before losing on penalties to the USA in the semi-final. That is not a fluke. That is a save idea.
How realistic was FM26's prediction?
Spain winning the World Cup is not ridiculous at all. With the technical quality they have, the midfield control, the young wide talent and players like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams developing into elite-level threats, Spain are one of the most believable winners FM26 could have picked.
The USA reaching the final is the spicy part. Home advantage matters, and FM26 clearly gave them a serious tournament run, but a World Cup final still feels like a massive leap. Then again, they did have a route that became more open once the giants started falling all over the place.
Ivory Coast reaching the semi-finals is pure Football Manager theatre. Possible? In a one-off tournament, with momentum, confidence and a few perfect performances, maybe. Likely? No. Brilliant content? Absolutely.
The weirdest part is that the overall winner is sensible, while the route there is chaos. And honestly, that is probably the best possible version of an FM World Cup simulation.
Final thoughts - FM26 has spoken
So, according to this FM26 simulation, Spain will win the World Cup 2026 after coming from 2-0 down to beat the USA 3-2 in the final. France finish third. Ivory Coast become the surprise package. Mbappe dominates the tournament stats. England go home early in the most England way imaginable, except even worse.
Should we treat this as a serious football prediction? No.
Should we massively overreact because Football Manager said so? Obviously.
This was one simulation, one timeline, and one gloriously chaotic version of the 2026 World Cup. But with FM26 now letting us jump straight into the tournament with confirmed squads, this might be one of the most fun international management features the series has added in years.
For more FM26 international content, check out our FM26 International Management features breakdown, our best international save ideas in FM26, and our World Cup 2026 wonderkids in FM26.
Now the real question is simple: would you take this World Cup outcome in real life, or has FM26 completely lost the plot?
