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Tips for Picking Underdogs in Football Betting

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Unleashing the Underdogs: Tips and Strategies for Betting on Football's Unexpected Winner
Tips for Picking Underdogs in Football Betting

Unleashing the Underdogs: Tips and Strategies for Betting on Football's Unexpected Winner


Betting on underdogs in football games can be a risky but hugely rewarding strategy when the chips fall right. It’s a hard approach to take to football betting, however, as bookmakers peg teams as underdogs for a good reason.

Underdog odds can be explored at the highly-rated football betting sites selected by Match.Center and the appeal of them is that they deliver a great return. From a single bet you can bank more money from an underdog win than you have done in successfully betting on the favourite with the same stake risked.

But spotting those underdog betting opportunities in football is not an easy thing. A blend of skill and luck is needed to nail them. Here we take a look at some tips for betting on the underdogs in football matches.
 

Unpredictably Good


For underdog bets, you want to avoid going to the mainstream sources of football betting. For that, we mean skipping over the likes of the Premier League, Championship, and Bundesliga. Those are what we would deem to be predictable leagues.

The ideal place to look for underdog football bets is more unpredictable leagues, where the playing field is a bit narrower between the top and bottom clubs. Leagues that have a little more parity between competitors should bring more underdog bets to light.

Note that an underdog bet doesn’t have to be a big 5/1 option by any means. A simple 2/1 winner is a great bet to pull off. We would suggest looking towards European leagues like Portugal's Primeira Liga or the Belgian top flight for such opportunities.

Of course, knuckle down and do your stats homework first. In particular, look for evenly-balanced leagues which have a high percentage of away wins, which hints at unpredictability.

Value Bets


This is a key factor for a betting strategy on underdogs. Don’t just blindly go by the odds that a bookmaker has set out. Use your acquired betting skill and knowledge of odds to spot value picks.

After looking at the stats, you see that a bookie has priced up a home team at 2/1 odds to win (33% implied probability), but your analysis on that team to win suggests that they should be around an 8/5 quote (38% implied probability).

So in such a scenario, by your estimation, the bookmaker has undervalued the chance of the underdog winning, meaning that it’s a great time to snap up the extended odds. Use statistics and analysis to estimate the true probabilities of different outcomes and compare them with the actual odds being offered.

Motivation as an Underdog Factor


There are, of course, many variables that affect the outcome of a football match. Injuries, team selection, the weather, questionable refereeing decisions, energy levels, etc. Motivation is another big one to take into consideration.

Towards the end of a season, you may see a team sitting safely in mid-table with no real motivation to win any of their few remaining matches. For their next match, they are kicking off as favourites against a team that badly needs a win to pull clear of the relegation zone.

But which of those teams should have the greater impetus to produce a positive result? Taking motivational factors into consideration can help you spot good scenarios in which to risk an underdog punt.

Home not Away


As another factor in underdog strategies, we would tend to lean towards home underdog wins only. It’s going to be much harder for an underdog to pull off a road win where they don’t have the same level of support behind them as they do in their own backyard. Home advantage generally gives teams some kind of edge, even poor, out-of-form ones.
 

Get Creative


There are plenty of strategies to put into place for betting on underdogs in football. Use the stats to your advantage and get to grips with pre-match odds where you can spot value bets. Also, look for alternative bets, like a Double Chance on an underdog, if you think they can do enough to avoid defeat.

Or get ready to use options like a Cash Out tool to pull out a winning bet if an underdog does get themselves in front, instead of sweating it out until the final whistle. There is also the in-play betting approach to use for underdogs.

It could be actually backing the underdog to win pre-match, and then waiting to see if they sneak an early lead. Then in play, the outcome of the favourite winning at longer odds can be hedged against the pre-match pick.
 

Conclusion


Taking on big football betting odds with underdog picks is a personal strategy that some bettors like to take on. It can be an intense approach as you may face more losses than regularly backing favourites.

The balance of weighing up the accumulated lost stakes on losing underdog bets has to be taken into consideration too. Maybe it is not a long-term strategy or one to regularly throw stakes at. But when the stars are aligned, it can occasionally be worth going for that underdog bet.

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FM Blog | FM24: Tips for Picking Underdogs in Football Betting
Tips for Picking Underdogs in Football Betting
Unleashing the Underdogs: Tips and Strategies for Betting on Football's Unexpected Winner
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